Amazing, almost 100%… tic toc

 

 

 

Scary…

Who will be next?

Weekly Econoreadings

Consumer confidence sinks

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/consumer-confidence-collapses-592-442-lowest-april-2009-hopium-ends-outlook-crushed

ECRI’s view on the recession: video

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/ecri%E2%80%99s-achuthan-jury-still-out-on-recession/

EU data

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/eurozone-retail-sales-drop-4th-straight.html

Remember this picture?

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/theteleprompter-chief-and-his-jobs-programs

Potential peak in corporate profits?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/corporate-profits/

Roubini and the recession:

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/roubini-sees-60-chance-double-dip-2012-china-and-brazil-also-risk

Rail traffic turns negative

http://pragcap.com/rail-traffic-turns-negative

No comments:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/2-year-10-year-treasury-yields-at.html

Is Apple peaking?

I’m a fan of Apple’s product, but I believe that Apple must be peaking in terms of market value, too much hype around it

It makes my opinion stronger when i read news like Apple will take a whole building for a new store in Sol (Madrid) – Quite big, don’t you think?

http://diariodesign.com/2011/05/visto-en-el-pais-apple-ocupara-todo-el-edificio-de-tio-pepe-en-sol/

Weekly Stock Market Update

The SP500 got my expected rebound.

Now usually a lower low should happen. This is my primary forecast.

Tomorrow everything should be decided. A break again of support areas or if not, I think, it will continue upwards to make higher highs. Tomorrow is a decisive day

Regarding Euro: HIgher but within range. Now at an area with strong resistances.

A zoom: If this red area is reached I will cancel my shorts

Weekly Stock Market Update

We can easily see a rebound here

The situation in Japan, and the likely strong intervention of central banks can produce a strong rebound

Also the USDJPY (yen) was hit a moment ago -loosing all supports- . So I belive there will be strong intervention that can produce an upward move

The trend is down, but I prefer to wait now and be in cash

Regarding the EURUSD I’m uncertain of what will happen, so I get some profits on SP500 and keeping my short EURUSD position

Check the graph for USDJPY

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Forecast: No changes: Down for SP500 and Down for EURUSD (or up for USD)

Regarding the SP500: last week the market went below the lowest support line I draw on the chart. And today we had a more important lower low at 1261. So the trend confirms to be down (until the trend changes)

About EURUSD:We are in the same situation as last week. I still can’t think in a macro situation where the Euro is a “better currency” than the dollar. I guess we are still in the same range as the market is expecting for some signs about QE3. I’m not  expecting that the Fed will start a new QE v3, and if the market realizes this, the USD will rally. But we still need to wait for more developments. One new thing is the sell off in commodities: corn, wheat, silver, gold, … you name it, have crashed significanttly in most cases, but overall they have started to move south. This should boost USD (in my opinion).But from a technical point of view we are still inside the triangle. It starting to go down last week but it bounced in the upwards trend line. I’m updating the chart. There is no lot of room now. I think that is a good bet to go short, now more than a couple of weeks ago. Risk / reward is very positive.

This is an example fo Wheat. (here we are close to a big support area. let’s see what it happens). And I just love this, as I believe more in a deflation scenario than a potential inflation

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Same forecast as last week: SPX down, EURUSD down

The SPX didn’t move this week, it was trading within a range. Last week the wedge was broken. Now the market has to decide if it moves down, or climbs back to this long-lasting wedge. There is a case though for a bullish scenario -> the market is not making lower lows. I’ve marked the support and resistance areas. Let’s see how the week starts, but a break of those blue lines will indicate the direction for a couple of weeks. My assumption is that it will go down. I’m still shorting it

EURUSD. I’m not happy. Bad week for my shorts. But as I’m investing medium term, I keep my position until the last maximum of November is breached. I just believe the EURUSD will go down. Why? I don’t think the Eurozone is in much better shape than US.

This week, Trichet says he is going to raise interest rates, and here we go, the EURUSD surges.

Maybe it’s all glossy in Germany or in France, and it seems a good idea to raise interest rates, but many other European countries are in pretty bad shape with CDS at very high levels. A ticking bomb.

And looking at the other side of the Atlantic. I don’ think there will be a QE3. So, if  I’m right, the EURUSD will change course.

But that’s all expectations about the economy. Just look at the market, the one who’s finally right. Let’s start with the dollar

The DX is nearly reaching the support black line. If it crosses down, it will be really bearish for the dollar, and I do not think of many reasons why the dollar will not be a safe currency – unless is being destroy with more QE -.

So back again to the EUR. Is really the EUR a better safe currency? I do not think so. Besides, a stronger EUR will hurt German exports

So the EURUSD is almost the other way of looking at the same coin (as a big % of DX is euro). So, the EURUSD is near resistance areas. It will cross them? If so, I guess I’m wrong and I’ll stop my shorts. But so far, in a monthly timeframe, I still bet against the EUR. Hope I’m not too wrong. Stop i’s just a bit higher. + 1.5%. If I’m right I think my bet will pay out itself many times. In one way or the other this range will be broken

 

Weekly Stock Market Update

As you can see in the chart the SP500 finally broke the wedge (purple lines) to the downside. A trend that was in place since August 2010

Last week was negative, and even if Monday and Tuesday were up days, today we got a negative one

I expect more downside to come. Same forecast: down. (even if after the movement of these weeks makes me believe that this downtrend will be a very bouncy one)

Regarding the EURUSD, after also broken to the downside a smaller wedge a couple of days ago, it is still within the same range since then. The last max has not been penetrated. Same forecast: Down

Weekly market forecast

“Markets Can Stay Irrational Longer Than Investors Can Stay Solvent”
John Maynard Keynes

 

I haven’t changed my forecast. Same situation. Red numbers

The EURUSD is still on the same range, and I think it will go down. Money injection (and some hilarious comments) from central banks keep the Euro afoat. Portugal is on the brink of a bailout. How long the EUR can resist? Also, if we look at the USD chart, it has a bullish “flavor”. In any case, I think this week we will know

Regarding the stock market, specifically, the SP500: This is hurting me a bit. The market keeps going higher despte the overbought conditions. The so much streched playing with the upper line of the wedge. I belive it will break down the same as the EURUSD did a couple of weeks ago. The longer it takes, more hot air to the ballon -> bigger the way down. Weekly moves: 2.81% up, 1.53% up, 1.15% up. Thats a lot!!! Thats pain if you are leveraged with SP500 futures. But is still within my error assumption. This week is key. Let’s see if I’m wrong or right. Wait for the price to pierce the lower line of the wedge (purple lines)

Forecasts for 2011

Old but Ok.

Charles Nenner

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=1674730733

And of course, our friend Gerald Celente,